Report: In Close Presidential Race, More Voters Expect Trump to Win; Many Remain Uncertain

The June 2024 Daily Kos/Civiqs Poll asked 1,140 registered voters in the United States about the 2024 presidential election and Donald Trump’s recent criminal convictions.

The 2024 Presidential Election

In a 2024 presidential election matchup between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump, the two candidates are currently tied, 45% to 45%. A significant 10% of voters -- disproportionately voters under age 34 and self-identified Independents -- say that they would prefer to vote for “someone else” for president or are unsure.

The June poll finds an essentially static race relative to earlier national polls this year. A Daily Kos/Civiqs poll in April 2024 found Trump ahead 45% to 44%. In the March 2024 Daily Kos/Civiqs poll, Biden was at 45% and Trump at 44%.

More voters expect that Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election, though many remain unsure: 43% predict a Trump victory, while 37% expect Biden to win. Fully 18% of voters say they are unsure, and 2% think someone other than Biden or Trump will win. Republicans are more certain that their candidate will win: 82% believe Trump will win, compared to 70% of Democrats who believe Biden will win.

Voters believe that both Biden and Trump are worse candidates in 2024 than they were in 2020. A majority, 55%, of voters think that Biden is a worse candidate today, while 17% think he is a better candidate, and 27% think he is about the same. Asked about Trump, 49% think he is a worse candidate, 31% think he is a better candidate, and 18% believe he is about the same. Two in three Republicans (65%) believe Trump is a better candidate now than four years ago. Only 35% of Democrats think Biden is a better candidate now.

Most voters are correctly aware of the actual age difference between Biden and Trump. About three-quarters (73%) say that to the best of their knowledge, Biden is a few years older than Trump. Another 20% say that the two candidates are “about the same age”.

After the Election

Americans are not optimistic about the next president, regardless of who is elected in November. Half of Americans (50%) say that the second term of either Trump or Biden as president will be worse than their first terms. These results are highly polarized by party, with Republicans more enthusiastic about Trump than Democrats are about Biden: 78% of Republicans think Trump’s second term will be better than his first, while 47% of Democrats think Biden’s second term will be better than his first and 40% say it will be about the same.

Following comments by Donald Trump about potentially seeking a third presidential term, 52% of voters believe that it is very (42%) or somewhat (10%) likely that Trump would try to stay in office for a third term if he is re-elected president in November. Democrats firmly believe that Trump will try to stay in office after his second term, with 75% who think it is very likely, and 14% saying it is somewhat likely.

Although most Republicans do not think that Trump would attempt to stay in office for a third term (18% not very likely; 58% not likely at all), a significant number of Republicans (24%) say that it would be a “good thing” for the United States if Trump did serve a third term. Fewer than half of Republicans (47%) say that this would be bad for the United States. These remarkable numbers are countered by 98% of Democrats and 70% of Independents who believe that it would be bad for the United States if Trump attempted to stay in office beyond his two terms.

Donald Trump’s Criminal Convictions

Overall, half of voters (50%) believe that Donald Trump is guilty of crimes he should go to jail for. Despite his recent conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, this result is unchanged from the March 2024 Daily Kos/Civiqs poll. A majority of Americans (56%) do not believe Trump will ever go to jail, regardless of guilt.

Americans are closely divided over whether Trump’s recent convictions should disqualify him as a candidate for president. Today, 49% think it should disqualify him, while 47% think it should not.

In general, more voters (45%) think that a convicted felon should not be allowed to run for President of the United States. Another 36%, including 59% of Republicans, believe that it should depend on the crime. By a margin of 79% to 5%, Democratic voters say that convicted felons should not be allowed to run for President of the United States.

Civiqs surveyed 1,140 registered voters in the United States from June 8-11, 2024. The survey was conducted online, among selected members of the Civiqs research panel. Sampled individuals were emailed by Civiqs and responded using a personalized link to the survey at civiqs.com. The survey results are weighted by age, race, gender, education, party identification, and region to be representative of the population of registered voters in the United States. The general design effect due to weighting is 1.12. The survey has a margin of error of ±3.1% at the 95% confidence level, accounting for the design effect.