Report: Negative Partisanship Dominates Presidential Vote, Especially for Biden Voters

The April 2024 Daily Kos/Civiqs Poll asked 1,161 registered voters in the United States about the 2024 presidential election, views of Joe Biden and Donald Trump as candidates, and preferences for policies governing abortion.

The 2024 Presidential Election

In a 2024 presidential election matchup between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the latest Daily Kos/Civiqs poll finds Trump leading 45% to 44%. The March 2024 Daily Kos/Civiqs poll had Biden at 45% and Trump with 44%, essentially unchanged.

More Americans are motivated by voting against the candidate they oppose for president than voting for the candidate they support – a display of “negative partisanship”. This is especially true among voters supporting President Biden. Fully 88% of Biden voters say they are “extremely” motivated by voting against Donald Trump, whereas 58% are extremely motivated by voting in support of Biden. Trump voters are about equally motivated by voting against Biden (77%) or for Trump (76%).

Asked about the possibility that Joe Biden is re-elected as president in 2024, 64% of Democrats would be “very happy” with that outcome, while 26% would be okay with it because “at least Biden is better than Trump”. In contrast, 82% of Republicans would be “very happy” if Trump is elected president again in 2024, and 12% would be okay because “at least Trump is better than Biden”. An equal number of Americans (48%) would be upset if either Biden or Trump were to win another term as president.

Many younger and politically independent voters continue to express a preference for voting for “someone else” other than Biden or Trump for president in 2024. Among Democrats under the age of 50, 10% would like to vote for “someone else”. Among Independents under the age of 50, 20% say they would vote for “someone else”.

Opinions on the Presidential Candidates

Nearly 1 in 5 voters (17%), including 27% of Independents, 16% of Republicans, and 9% of Democrats, do not trust either Joe Biden or Donald Trump to tell them the truth. Overall, Americans find Biden more trustworthy than Trump, as 43% trust Biden more to tell them the truth, and 37% trust Trump more.

Opinions are more closely divided on national security: 46% of voters trust Trump more with national security, while 42% trust Biden more. On the economy, 49% of voters trust Trump more and 42% trust Biden.

By a wide margin, more voters believe that Donald Trump is “stronger physically and mentally” than Joe Biden. Nearly half of voters (49%) believe that Trump is stronger, while 33% believe that Biden is stronger.

President Biden’s job approval rating remains net negative, as 35% of Americans approve of the way Biden is handling his job as president, while 58% disapprove. Only a slim majority of Democrats aged 18-34 (51%) approve of Biden’s job performance, while 92% of Democrats aged 65 and older approve.

Abortion

There is almost no popular support for a national abortion ban with no exceptions. Just 10% of Americans – and only 21% of Republicans – would support such a ban. Three quarters (75%) of voters, including 95% of Democrats, 74% of Independents, and even 52% of Republicans, oppose a nationwide ban on abortion.

A federal 15 week abortion ban, with exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother, is also opposed by half of Americans (47%). Another 38% would support such a ban.

Half of Americans (49%) think that laws governing abortion should be made nationally, while 41% think they should be made state-by-state. Democrats and Republicans hold opposite views on this issue. Democrats say 79% to 10% that abortion laws should be national, while Republicans say 74% to 18% that these laws should be made state by state. Independents are evenly split on the issue, 44% to 44%.

Thinking about their own opinions on abortion, 48% of voters say that their opinion is closer to Democrats in their state than Republicans. One third (33%) say their opinion on abortion is closer to Republicans, while 15% say their opinion is not closer to Democrats or Republicans in their state. Similarly, voters believe that their opinion on the issue of abortion is closer to Biden (44%) than to Trump (36%), with 14% saying their opinions are neither closer to Trump nor Biden.

Civiqs surveyed 1,161 registered voters in the United States from April 13-16, 2024. The survey was conducted online, among selected members of the Civiqs research panel. Sampled individuals were emailed by Civiqs and responded using a personalized link to the survey at civiqs.com. The survey results are weighted by age, race, gender, education, party identification, and region to be representative of the population of registered voters in the United States. The general design effect due to weighting is 1.12. The survey has a margin of error of ±3% at the 95% confidence level, accounting for the design effect.