Report: Most Americans Accept Biden/Trump 2024 is Happening

The March 2024 Daily Kos/Civiqs Poll asked 1,324 registered voters in the United States about the 2024 presidential election, fertility treatments, and Donald Trump’s legal troubles.

The 2024 Presidential Election

With no major Democratic or Republican challengers left running in the presidential primaries, a 2024 Biden/Trump matchup is a virtual certainty. Nearly all (91%) Americans acknowledge that Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee for president. However, 78% of voters, including only 59% of Republicans, believe that Joe Biden will be the Democratic candidate for president in 2024. Among Republicans, 20% do not think Biden will be the Democratic candidate, and 21% are unsure. All interviewing was conducted after the Super Tuesday primaries on March 5 and President Biden’s State of the Union Address on March 7.

Joe Biden holds a slight edge over Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 presidential election matchup, with Biden receiving 45% of the vote and Trump receiving 44%. Another 11% say that they would rather vote for someone else, or are unsure. These results are nearly identical to the January 2024 Daily Kos/Civiqs survey.

Among Americans who are planning to vote for Donald Trump in 2024, most (82%) consider their vote to be a vote for Trump, while just 17% say they are voting against Joe Biden. In contrast, only 65% of Biden presidential voters consider their vote as more of a vote for Joe Biden, while 35% say that their preference for Biden is mainly a vote against Donald Trump.

Biden’s job approval rating remains underwater, with 37% of voters who approve of how Biden is handling his job as president, and 56% who disapprove.

Fertility Treatments

Americans (80%) overwhelmingly believe that in vitro fertilization (IVF) procedures should be legal, while just 6% believe they should be illegal and 14% are unsure. Among those who have used a fertility treatment such as IVF or know someone who has, 91% believe that IVF should be legal. Support for keeping IVF legal is strong across the political spectrum: 90% of Democrats, 80% of Independents, and 69% of Republicans all agree that IVF procedures should be legal.

A substantial majority (66%) of voters would support a law that would protect IVF patients and providers if they chose to destroy their own unused, frozen embryos. This includes 86% of Democrats, 63% of Independents, and 45% of Republicans. Another 13% of voters overall would oppose such a law, and 21% are unsure.

When asked if the frozen embryos created and stored as a part of IVF procedures should have the legal status of human beings, 59% of voters think that they should not. Another 24% believe that these embryos are children and should have corresponding legal protections, and 17% aren’t sure.

Donald Trump and the Legal System

Republican voters are divided over whether the Republican National Committee (RNC) should help pay Donald Trump’s legal bills for the criminal and civil cases he is currently facing. A plurality of Republicans (38%) say that the RNC should help pay Trump’s legal bills. However, 26% of Republicans oppose this. Another 25% of Republicans say that they are indifferent; and 10% are unsure. Democrats, in contrast, are strongly against the RNC footing Trump’s legal bills, with 81% opposed and only 5% in support.

Just over half (51%) of voters believe that former President Trump illegally conspired to overturn President Biden’s 2020 election victory. Attitudes are completely polarized along partisan lines: 91% of Democrats believe Trump conspired to overturn the election, while 90% of Republicans say he did not.

On the question of Donald Trump’s claim of presidential immunity that will be considered by the Supreme Court, 58% of voters think that Trump should not be immune from criminal prosecution for actions taken while he was president. Even 19% of Republicans think that Trump should not be immune from prosecution. Only 35% of voters (including 71% of Republicans) think Trump should be immune from criminal prosecution.

While 50% of Americans believe that Donald Trump is guilty of at least one crime he should go to jail for, 60% do not think he will ever go to jail. In a June 2023 Daily Kos/Civiqs poll, an identical 50% of voters believed Trump was guilty, but fewer (53%) believed he would not go to jail. Among Democrats in today’s poll, 91% believe Trump is guilty and should go to jail, but just 23% believe he will end up there. Another 44% of Democratic voters think Trump will not go to jail, and 33% are unsure.

Civiqs surveyed 1,324 registered voters in the United States from March 9-12, 2024. The survey was conducted online, among selected members of the Civiqs research panel. Sampled individuals were emailed by Civiqs and responded using a personalized link to the survey at civiqs.com. The survey results are weighted by age, race, gender, education, party identification, and region to be representative of the population of registered voters in the United States. The general design effect due to weighting is 1.07. The survey has a margin of error of ±2.8% at the 95% confidence level, accounting for the design effect.