Report: Voters Divided on Trump vs. Biden in 2024 Presidential Election

The January 2024 Daily Kos/Civiqs Poll asked 1,217 registered voters in the United States about the 2024 presidential election, immigration, border security, and access to abortion.

The 2024 Presidential Election

Joe Biden and Donald Trump are currently tied at 44% in a hypothetical 2024 presidential election matchup. A substantial 11% of voters say that they would rather vote for someone else, or are unsure. Independents (19%) and voters aged 18-34 (16%) are most likely to be uncommitted to Biden or Trump.

Uncommitted voters overwhelmingly have a negative view of how President Biden is handling his job as president: only 4% approve, and 82% disapprove. However, these same uncommitted voters agree with Democratic policies on abortion and immigration. Two-thirds of uncommitted voters (68%) think that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Another 64% of uncommitted voters think that the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade in 2022 was the wrong decision. A majority of uncommitted voters believe that immigration is good for both the economy (54% good/24% bad) and for U.S. culture (58% good/19% bad).

Nationally, President Biden’s job approval rating remains underwater at the start of the election year: in today’s survey, Biden has a 35% job approval rating, with 56% disapproval. He continues to struggle among Democrats ages 18-34, with just 47% approving of his job performance. This compares to a September 2023 Daily Kos/Civiqs poll, when 66% of young Democrats approved of the way Biden was handling his job as president. This dissatisfaction is not translating to vote choice, though: Biden leads Trump 85% to 5% among younger Democrats.

Denial About the 2024 Presidential Candidates?

Many Americans think that someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump is going to be the Democratic or Republican Party’s nominee for president in 2024, even though this poll was fielded after their victories in the early nominating contests.

Just 70% of voters think that Joe Biden will be the Democratic candidate for president in 2024, despite Biden running nearly uncontested for the Democratic nomination. Fully 44% of Republicans and 38% of Independents believe that the Democratic candidate will be someone other than President Biden, or aren’t sure. By contrast, 91% of Democrats think Biden will be the Democratic nominee. Watching Fox News is correlated with believing that the Democratic candidate will be someone other than Biden: nearly half (48%) of voters who watch Fox News frequently say that the Democratic nominee for president will not be Joe Biden, or are unsure.

Voters are more certain that the Republican nominee for president in 2024 will be Donald Trump. Overall, 78% of voters believe that Donald Trump will be the Republican Party candidate, including 93% of Republican voters. Yet many Democrats think that Trump will not be the Republican nominee: 12% think it will be Nikki Haley, and 21% say it will be someone else or are unsure.

Among voters who are currently uncommitted to voting for either Biden or Trump in a head-to-head matchup, 36% do not actually expect that Biden will be the Democratic candidate, and 40% do not expect that Trump will be the Republican candidate.

Immigration and Border Security

As President Biden and Senate Republicans negotiate over a deal on immigration and border security, a majority of Americans (57%) want Democrats and Republicans to compromise on a bipartisan agreement now. This includes 80% of Democrats, 51% of Independents, and 35% of Republicans. Only 15% of voters would rather not have a deal now, and wait until after the 2024 election to revisit the issue. Another 18% prefer neither of those options, and 11% are unsure.

More voters (42%) believe that the federal government should have the ultimate authority to enforce U.S. border security. A quarter (25%) think states along the border should have the final say on border security, while 30% think the federal government and border states should share that authority. Most Democrats (70%) and a plurality of Independents (37%) think the federal government should control the border, while about half (47%) of Republicans think it should be solely up to the states.

Voters are polarized by party over whether immigration is good or bad for the United States. Among Democrats, 73% believe immigration is good for the U.S. economy, and 75% say immigration is good for the culture of the United States. Among Republicans, the pattern is reversed: 74% of Republicans believe immigration is bad for the U.S. economy, and 66% think immigration has a negative impact on U.S. culture. A small plurality of Independents believe immigration is bad for the economy (45% bad/41% good) but good for U.S. culture (45% good/37% bad). Overall, 44% of voters believe that immigration is good for the U.S. economy, while 41% believe it is bad. More voters (46%) think that immigration has a positive impact on U.S. culture than those who believe immigration has a negative impact (35%).

Despite many voters believing that immigration has a positive impact on the United States, 58% of voters want immigration policies in the U.S. to be more restrictive – including 25% of Democrats. In comparison, 21% of Americans would like immigration policies to be less restrictive. Just 6% of voters are satisfied with current policies on immigration in the United States.

Abortion Access

Americans’ opinions about abortion access have remained largely stable since Civiqs last asked about the subject in a May 2023 poll. As in May, 59% of voters believe that abortion should be legal in all (30%) or most (29%) cases. Only 8% of voters want to fully outlaw abortion.

Voters also continue to believe that the Supreme Court made the wrong decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022. In May 2023, Americans said 52% to 43% that it was the wrong decision. Today, 54% of Americans think that the Supreme Court was wrong, and 42% believe it made the correct decision. A majority (51%) also supports Congress passing a bill that would codify into federal law the abortion rights granted in the original 1973 Roe v. Wade decision.

One third of Americans (32%) remain dissatisfied with the current policies on abortion in their state because they believe abortion should be easier to access. Another 34% are satisfied with their state’s policies on abortion, and 22% are dissatisfied because they want abortion to be more restricted in their state. Nearly half of voters in the southern United States (45%) want abortion care to be made more accessible in their state.

On a personal level, most Americans (78%) would support a friend or loved one who chose to have an abortion. Many (41%) would support their loved one without question, while 37% would make sure they considered other options, but would ultimately support their decision. Just 19% of Americans would not support their loved one’s decision.

Civiqs surveyed 1,217 registered voters in the United States from January 27-30, 2024. The survey was conducted online, among selected members of the Civiqs research panel. Sampled individuals were emailed by Civiqs and responded using a personalized link to the survey at civiqs.com. The survey results are weighted by age, race, gender, education, party identification, and region to be representative of the population of registered voters in the United States. The general design effect due to weighting is 1.09. The survey has a margin of error of ±2.9% at the 95% confidence level, accounting for the design effect.