Report: Harris Leads Trump; Democrats Happy to Have a New Nominee

The July 2024 Daily Kos/Civiqs Poll asked 1,123 registered voters in the United States about the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris, J.D. Vance, and how voters are thinking about the issue of abortion.

The 2024 Presidential Election

Vice President Kamala Harris, the new presumptive Democratic nominee for president, leads former President Donald Trump 49% to 45% in a nationwide 2024 election matchup. Harris receives strong support from Democrats (95%) and Black voters (86%), and holds a substantial 55% to 33% lead among 18-34 year olds. In a June 2024 Daily Kos/Civiqs poll, President Biden led by only 9 percentage points among 18-34 year olds. In that survey, Biden and Trump were tied nationally, 45% to 45%.

A large majority of Democratic voters (64%) are glad that Biden decided to exit the 2024 presidential race. Only 11% of Democrats say they wish he was still running. Overall, 55% of Americans are glad Biden left the race, and 19% wish he was still running -- including 30% of Republicans.

Voters overwhelmingly believe that Harris has either an equal (31%) or better (50%) chance than Biden did of defeating Donald Trump in November. Democrats in particular are much more optimistic. Fully 76% of Democratic voters think that Harris gives Democrats a better chance of retaining the presidency. Likewise, in a June 2024 Daily Kos/Civiqs poll, 70% of Democrats predicted that Joe Biden would win; today, 83% of Democrats think that Harris will win.

Overall, however, more voters still expect Trump to win the presidential election: 45% predict that Trump will win, 42% predict that Harris will win, and 14% believe it will be someone else, or are unsure.

Opinions About the Candidates

Similar proportions of Americans have favorable opinions about Harris and Trump. Currently, 43% of voters have a favorable opinion of Kamala Harris, while 51% have an unfavorable opinion. Thinking about Trump, 42% have a favorable opinion, and 56% have an unfavorable opinion.

Vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance has a 34% favorable rating, with 51% unfavorable and 15% unsure. Only 67% of Republicans think that Vance was a good vice presidential selection. Another 16% of Republicans think Trump should have picked someone else, and 12% say it makes no difference to them.

Following Trump’s recent statement that his voters won’t have to vote again after this election, 39% of Americans say that their top concern about a Trump second term is the impact it would have on America’s democracy. Among Democrats, 72% cite this as their top concern, and no other concern comes close.

Voters are much more divided about their top concerns if Kamala Harris is elected president: 15% would be concerned about her handling of immigration, 14% about the impact on democracy, 12% about her handling of the economy, and 12% about her handling of international conflict.

Abortion and Voting

Abortion remains an extremely important issue to many voters in 2024. A substantial 61% say it is either their top issue (12%) or a high priority issue (49%). Another 17% say abortion is a low priority issue and 21% say it will not affect their vote at all. Among Democrats, 19% say that abortion is the most important issue to their vote in 2024, and 66% consider it a high priority issue.

Nearly half of voters (48%) say that they are not willing to vote for a candidate for major elected office who disagrees with them on the issue of abortion. This issue is much more salient for Democrats: 70% refuse to vote for a candidate who does not agree with them, compared to 42% of Independent voters and just 28% of Republicans. A plurality of Republicans (37%) say that it depends on the candidate; another 31% would be willing to vote for a candidate who disagreed with them on the issue of abortion.

Asked who they hold primarily responsible for Roe v. Wade being overturned, 41% of Americans say the Supreme Court, followed by 25% saying Donald Trump, and 15% saying conservative interest groups. Only Democrats tend to say Donald Trump is more responsible (42%) than the Supreme Court (31%).

Civiqs surveyed 1,123 registered voters in the United States from July 27-30, 2024. The survey was conducted online, among selected members of the Civiqs research panel. Sampled individuals were emailed by Civiqs and responded using a personalized link to the survey at civiqs.com. The survey results are weighted by age, race, gender, education, party identification, and region to be representative of the population of registered voters in the United States. The general design effect due to weighting is 1.05. The survey has a margin of error of ±3% at the 95% confidence level, accounting for the design effect.