Report: Most Voters Expect a Close Presidential Election, Decided Quickly

The October 2024 Daily Kos/Civiqs Poll asked 1,210 registered voters in the United States to predict the outcome of the 2024 presidential, Senate, and House elections, as well as their opinions on campaigning, voter fraud, and the presidential candidates’ policy proposals.

The 2024 Election: Who Will Win?

Americans are divided on who they expect to win the 2024 presidential election. Slightly more voters (45%) think Kamala Harris will win (21% definitely, 24% probably) than think Donald Trump will win (42% total; 25% definitely, 17% probably). Another 13% of voters say they are unsure.

Republicans express greater confidence in a Trump victory: 56% of Republicans believe that Trump will definitely win the election, compared to 42% of Democrats who believe that Harris will definitely win.

Overall, 61% of voters think that the 2024 election will be closely decided, including 67% of Democrats and 50% of Republicans. But 28% of voters think that the 2024 presidential election will be a landslide. Fully 39% of voters who supported Trump in 2020 expect a landslide victory – presumably for Trump.

Voters expect that the Republican Party will win control of both the U.S. Senate (46%) and the House of Representatives (44%) after the November elections. Just 29% believe that Democrats will control the Senate, and 36% believe that Democrats will control the House. A large number remain unsure.

More Election Expectations

Despite concerns about vote counting delays in states like Pennsylvania, most Americans believe that the nation will know the winner of the 2024 presidential election either on Election Day (37%) or within a few days after the election (42%). Democrats, Republicans, and Independents are all confident that the winner will be known within a few days.

Republican voters are extremely concerned about the possibility of election fraud in the 2024 presidential election. Fully 68% of Republicans say they are very concerned about election fraud, and another 25% are somewhat concerned. In contrast, only 30% of Democrats are either very (12%) or somewhat (18%) concerned about election fraud in 2024. Just 7% of Republicans say they are not concerned about this possibility, versus 66% of Democrats.

Most Americans (60%) feel very comfortable discussing their vote with friends and family. They are less comfortable publicly displaying their political support by placing candidates’ signs in their home’s windows or yard. Only around half (52%) say they would be very (37%) or somewhat (15%) comfortable displaying a political sign. Another 19% would be somewhat uncomfortable, and 25% would feel very uncomfortable.

Presidential Campaign Policy Proposals

The survey asked voters to indicate whether they support or oppose a series of policy proposals released by the Trump and Harris presidential campaigns in recent weeks. The Harris proposals receive higher levels of popular support:

• Expanding Medicare to cover the cost of home care workers for the elderly: 79% support, 13% oppose. A majority (55%) strongly supports this proposal, including many Republican voters.
• Capping out-of-pocket drug costs at $2,000 per year: 70% support, 16% oppose.
• Increasing the tax deduction for starting a small business from $5,000 to $50,000: 63% support, 21% oppose.
• Providing a $25,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers: 55% support, 39% oppose.
• Introducing tariffs on all imports into the United States: 44% support, 46% oppose.
• Eliminating the Department of Education: 39% support, 56% oppose. While 72% of Republicans support eliminating the Department of Education, 92% of Democrats oppose this, with 89% who strongly oppose the idea.

Civiqs surveyed 1,210 registered voters in the United States from October 12-15, 2024. The survey was conducted online, among selected members of the Civiqs research panel. Sampled individuals were emailed by Civiqs and responded using a personalized link to the survey at civiqs.com. The survey results are weighted by age, race, gender, education, party identification, and region to be representative of the population of registered voters in the United States. The general design effect due to weighting is 1.06. The survey has a margin of error of ±2.9% at the 95% confidence level, accounting for the design effect.