Report: A 2024 Biden-Trump Rematch Will Motivate Americans to Vote, but Fewer are Excited About It

The July 2023 Daily Kos/Civiqs Poll asked 1,154 registered voters in the United States about the 2024 presidential election, their opinions about strikes and labor unions, and whether climate change is responsible for recent extreme weather events.

Biden vs. Trump in 2024

Americans are very motivated to vote in a 2024 presidential rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Voters overwhelmingly describe themselves as “very motivated” (77%) or “somewhat motivated” (8%) to vote if Biden and Trump are on the ballot. Democrats and Republicans are equally motivated to vote in 2024, with 82% of both groups saying that they are very motivated.

A smaller share of voters (57%) feel excited to be deciding between these two candidates again (41% very excited, 16% somewhat excited). Another 20% are not very excited, and 22% are not excited at all. Whereas 71% of Republicans are excited to vote in this matchup, just 59% of Democrats and 43% of Independents say they are either very or somewhat excited about a Biden-Trump rematch.

In a January 2023 Civiqs poll, 59% of voters did not want Trump to run again, and 62% did not want Biden to run again.

Americans have very little interest in voting for a third-party presidential candidate in 2024 if Joe Biden and Donald Trump are the Democratic and Republican Party nominees. Two-thirds of voters (66%) would not consider voting for a third-party candidate at all, including 78% of Democratic voters, 68% of Republican voters, and 50% of Independent voters. Only 7% say they would definitely vote for a third-party candidate; 21% of voters would at least consider it.

Organized Labor

From the ongoing writers’ and actors’ strike in Hollywood to the recently resolved UPS contract negotiations, labor disputes are in the spotlight. Overall, 50% of Americans say they have a favorable opinion of labor unions, 33% have an unfavorable opinion, and 17% are unsure. Views towards labor unions are essentially unchanged since a December 2021 Civiqs poll.

Support for labor unions grows stronger in specific scenarios. When hearing about disputes between labor unions and companies, 59% of voters find themselves siding much more (35%) or somewhat more (24%) with labor unions than with companies. Just 20% of Americans say they find themselves siding more with companies in such disputes.

Americans who are not satisfied with their current salary and working conditions are more likely to side with organized labor: 43% find themselves “much more” on the side of unions, while just 28% of voters who are satisfied with their jobs say the same.

There is broad support for the right of workers to go on strike. Fully 62% of Americans believe it is acceptable for workers to go on strike as a way to improve their working conditions, with an additional 31% who find strikes acceptable depending on the situation. Only 5% say that strikes are not an acceptable way for workers to improve their working conditions.

Extreme Weather and Climate Change

This summer, there has been a prolonged, record-breaking heatwave in the southern United States. Half of voters (48%) believe that recent extreme weather is being caused by global climate change. Another 14% think that climate change is causing some of the extreme weather, but not all of it. One-third of Americans (34%), including 67% of Republicans, do not believe recent extreme weather is caused by climate change.

Overall, Americans recognize that global climate change is occurring. Yet there is disagreement over whether it is mainly due to human activity. While 53% of Americans believe that climate change is caused mostly by human activity, another 29% believe that the climate is changing, but not because of human activity. Only 10% express the view that climate change is not happening.

Americans are divided in their response to extreme weather conditions in their area, such as heat, cold, flooding, fires, and heavy storms. Among Democrats, 79% are extremely (50%) or moderately (29%) concerned about extreme weather. Republicans are the reverse: 64% say they are not concerned at all about extreme weather, with 20% who are a little concerned.

Similarly, 89% of Democrats think that global climate change is an “extremely” (77%) or somewhat (12%) urgent problem. In contrast, just 5% of Republicans describe climate change as an extremely urgent problem, and 12% consider it a somewhat urgent problem. The rest of Republicans either are not concerned about global climate change, or believe that it is not happening.

Civiqs surveyed 1,154 registered voters in the United States from July 22-25, 2023. The survey was conducted online, among selected members of the Civiqs research panel. Sampled individuals were emailed by Civiqs and responded using a personalized link to the survey at civiqs.com. The survey results are weighted by age, race, gender, education, party identification, and region to be representative of the population of registered voters in the United States. The general design effect due to weighting is 1.07. The survey has a margin of error of ±3.0% at the 95% confidence level, accounting for the design effect.