Report: Half of Americans Think Donald Trump is Guilty of Crimes, Should Go to Jail

The June 2023 Daily Kos/Civiqs Poll asked 1,148 registered voters in the United States about former President Trump’s legal problems, how Trump matches up against Governor Ron DeSantis in the Republican presidential primary, and interest in voting for Trump versus President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election.

Donald Trump’s Legal Issues

Last week, former President Donald Trump was indicted by a federal grand jury on charges related to the retention of national security documents and obstruction of justice. Today, half of Americans (50%) believe that Trump is guilty of crimes and should be going to jail. Fully 91% of Democrats think Trump should go to jail, along with 46% of Independents, and 8% of Republicans. On the other side, 42% of Americans do not think Trump is guilty of crimes that he should go to jail for.

Voters do not expect that Trump will ever go to jail, however. Overall, 53% think Trump will not go to jail, 16% think he will, and nearly one-third (31%) are unsure. Only 30% of Democrats -- who overwhelmingly believe Trump should go to jail -- think that he ever actually will.

Donald Trump vs. Ron DeSantis

After former President Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is widely recognized as the next top contender for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. When asked to choose between just these two candidates, nearly half of Republican voters (47%) would prefer to see Trump as their nominee for president in 2024, compared to 27% who would prefer DeSantis. Another 17% of Republicans think either candidate would be fine as their nominee.

Republican voters consider Donald Trump (44%) to have a better chance than Ron DeSantis (26%) to defeat President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election. One quarter (24%) of Republicans think the two candidates have about the same chance to defeat Biden.

On most other electoral issues, Republicans side with Trump over DeSantis. By a margin of 42% to 19%, Republican voters agree with Trump more than DeSantis “on the issues facing America” today. Likewise, 38% of Republicans say that Trump “better represents” people like themselves, versus 22% choosing DeSantis. Honesty and ethical behavior is the only area in which DeSantis has an edge on Trump: Republican voters think 34% - 25% that DeSantis is more “honest and ethical” than the former president, but 30% see no difference between them.

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

A significant number of Republican voters -- despite their continued support for former President Trump -- say they are less interested in voting for him than they were in 2020. One in four Republicans (25%) say they have lost some interest in voting for Trump, versus 31% who are more interested, and 42% who feel the same as they did in 2020. The results among 2020 Trump voters are similar: 23% are less interested, 35% are more interested, and 41% feel the same.

If Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for president in 2024, 45% of registered voters say they would definitely (39%) or probably (6%) vote for him. More than half of voters (53%) say they would definitely (50%) or probably (3%) vote for someone else. Trump retains a very high level of support among people who voted for him in 2020: 82% would definitely vote for him again if he is the nominee in 2024, while 12% say they would probably vote for him.

Support for reelecting President Joe Biden is similar to support for Trump: 46% of voters would vote for Biden for president in 2024. However, the intensity of support for Biden is lower, as only 34% would definitely vote for Biden, and 12% say they would probably vote for him. Among 2020 Biden voters, 67% would definitely vote for him if he is the nominee, and 22% say they would probably vote for him again.

Civiqs surveyed 1,148 registered voters in the United States from June 10-13, 2023. The survey was conducted online, among selected members of the Civiqs research panel. Sampled individuals were emailed by Civiqs and responded using a personalized link to the survey at civiqs.com. The survey results are weighted by age, race, gender, education, party identification, and region to be representative of the population of registered voters in the United States. The general design effect due to weighting is 1.06. The survey has a margin of error of ±3.0% at the 95% confidence level, accounting for the design effect.