Report: Americans Do Not Want a Presidential Rematch in 2024

The July 2022 Daily Kos/Civiqs Poll asked 1,310 registered voters in the United States about the 2024 presidential election, the Supreme Court, reproductive rights, political divisions, book banning, and more.

Biden and Trump in 2024

Americans wish to move past the 2020 presidential election with new candidates in 2024, on both the Democratic and Republican tickets. A large majority of voters do not want former President Donald Trump (58%) or President Joe Biden (66%) to run again.

This result for President Biden is significantly bleaker than in a January 2022 Daily Kos/Civiqs poll, which found that 59% of Americans at that time did not want Biden to run for reelection. Even a plurality of Democrats (45%) now say that they do not want Biden to run again, versus 30% who want him to run and 24% who are unsure. Young Democrats aged 18-34 are most against Biden: only 15% want him to run, while 67% do not. Democrats over the age of 65 are more supportive but are still not enthusiastic, with 40% supporting a reelection campaign and 32% opposed.

Americans also do not want to see another Trump campaign in 2024. Only one in three (32%) want former President Trump to run for president again, with 10% unsure. Trump receives noticeably more support from his own party than Biden does, with 63% of Republicans saying they want Trump to run again and only 23% saying they do not.

Reproductive and Civil Rights

Following the Supreme Court’s recent ruling to overturn Roe v. Wade, many Americans are concerned that the Court is poised to reverse other rights as well. Nearly half of Americans (47%) think it is either very (25%) or somewhat (22%) likely that the Supreme Court will reverse the right to same-sex marriage in the United States. About three-quarters of Democrats (74%) believe this is likely, while only 39% of Independents and 21% of Republicans think the same.

Another 41% of Americans believe that it is likely that the Supreme Court will reverse the right to access birth control, with 23% saying it is very likely. Democrats are especially worried about this possibility: 71% say that it is either very (40%) or somewhat (31%) likely that access to birth control will be lost. On the other side, 53% of voters do not believe that the Supreme Court will reverse the right to birth control, with 42% who say it is very unlikely.

Many states have restricted access to abortion. A majority of Americans (56%) support private employers in those states offering paid travel expenses for workers who want to seek an abortion out of state, while 36% oppose this. Women (61%) are more in favor of employers providing this benefit than men (51%). Regardless of what side they are on, voters feel strongly about this issue, as 46% strongly support this benefit and 27% strongly oppose it.

Some states have also restricted access to gender affirming care for transgender individuals. Voters are divided on private employers offering paid travel expenses for workers seeking gender affirming care for themselves or their children out of state. About half (46%) support employers offering this benefit, while 45% oppose it.

Political Divisions

The percent of Americans who say that the country is on the wrong track is nearing 80% in Civiqs tracking. Today, 68% of Americans agree either strongly (26%) or somewhat (42%) that the United States “seems headed toward a civil war in the near future.” Another 13% somewhat disagree and 10% strongly disagree. These results corroborate the findings of other recent polls.

The idea of a civil conflict is not politically polarized: 65% of Democrats, 74% of Republicans, and 68% of Independents all agree that the direction the U.S. is taking seems to be leading towards civil war.

The survey also asked if people agreed with the statement that “liberal leaders are trying to increase their political power by making the United States more diverse and replacing conservative white voters.” Overall, 45% of Americans agree with the statement. Among Republicans, 76% agree with this idea, and 53% strongly agree. More white voters agree than disagree, 50% to 42%.

Americans are divided over whether feminism has done more good or more harm in the United States. On balance, 41% think that the overall impact of feminism in the United States has been good, while 36% think it has done more harm than good. Another 23% are ambivalent or unsure. There are differences by gender, as women say 44% to 33% that feminism has done more good, while men say 40% to 36% it has done more harm.

Banning Books in Schools

As book bans continue to be pushed by conservative politicians and parents around the United States, more Americans think that these books should be included in school libraries and classrooms than not. Half of Americans (48%) think their local schools should contain books with characters who are gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgender, while 35% think that these books should not be in schools. Another 9% think these books should be included, but would like to see fewer of them than there are now. Opinions are highly polarized, with 79% of Democrats and 46% of Independents saying schools should contain these books, while 66% of Republicans think these books should not be in schools.

There is substantially higher support for books by and about people of color: 93% of voters believe that school libraries and classrooms should contain these books. This includes 96% of Democrats, 89% of Republicans, and 92% of Independents.

Despite the issue of book bans growing more heated in the past few months, Americans' opinions on the subject have not changed since these questions were last asked in a January 2022 Daily Kos/Civiqs survey.

Civiqs surveyed 1,310 registered voters in the United States from July 16-19, 2022. The survey was conducted online, among selected members of the Civiqs research panel. Sampled individuals were emailed by Civiqs and responded using a personalized link to the survey at civiqs.com. The survey results are weighted by age, race, gender, education, party identification, and region to be representative of the population of registered voters in the United States. The general design effect due to weighting is 1.07. The survey has a margin of error of ±2.8% at the 95% confidence level, accounting for the design effect.