Analysis: President Biden’s Declining Approval Rating

The August 2021 Daily Kos/Civiqs Poll asked 1,271 registered voters in the United States about their views of President Biden and his first-year policy agenda.

President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is currently at the lowest point in his presidency, following a slow and steady decline since he took office in January. To understand why, we asked Americans their opinion on twelve major policy initiatives enacted by President Biden and Democrats in Congress this year; including passing the American Rescue Plan, rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement, declaring Juneteenth a new federal holiday, and more.

Despite voters’ worsening view of Biden’s job performance, the survey finds that voters approve of Biden’s policy agenda on ten of the twelve actions tested. Biden’s most widely supported action, with 71% of Americans approving, is his administration’s effort to increase the COVID-19 vaccine supply and administer shots to over 200 million Americans. Many other initiatives taken by President Biden are viewed favorably by a large margin of fifteen to twenty percentage points.

Most Americans, however, say that they do not feel the Biden administration has done anything to benefit them personally. Although Biden’s policy initiatives -- including accelerating distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine, enhanced child tax credits, cash stimulus payments in the American Rescue Plan, and so on -- have directly affected substantial numbers of Americans, only 37% of voters feel that they have personally benefited from the Biden administration’s actions in any way. Most Americans (57%) say that they have felt no personal benefit from the Biden administration.

A popular and broadly impactful policy agenda has not been sufficient to sustain -- much less increase -- support for President Biden. Nearly half (47%) of Americans say that their opinion of Biden has gotten worse since he took office in January. Just 18% of voters say that their opinion of Biden has improved. One in three (35%) say that their opinion of Biden is unchanged; and of these, many are Republicans who disapproved of Biden when he was inaugurated, and continue to disapprove of him now.

Biden’s Popular Policy Agenda

On balance, Americans approve of nearly every major Biden policy initiative this year. His most popular actions include expanding the COVID-19 vaccine supply, declaring Juneteenth a new federal holiday, passing the American Rescue Plan, and withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan.

The only two major policy actions that Americans disapprove of, on net, are Biden’s executive orders to reverse former President Trump’s immigration and border policies and to revoke permits for the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline.

Notably, Biden’s increasing the COVID-19 vaccine supply is not only his most widely supported policy action, but it is the initiative with the most bipartisan support. Voters overwhelmingly approve of the increased vaccine supply and the fact that shots have been administered to over 200 million Americans. The 71% in approval includes 93% of Democrats, 70% of Independents, and 47% of Republicans.

Approval of Biden’s policy agenda follows an urban-rural divide. While 55% of voters approve of the American Rescue Plan overall, 69% of Americans in urban areas support the legislation. Only 46% of rural Americans support it. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of voters in urban areas approve of rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement, compared to 42% of rural Americans. While 62% of Americans in urban areas approve of enhanced child tax credits, only 39% of rural Americans support the policy.

Biden’s Policies are Not Being Widely Felt

Although item by item, Biden’s agenda is popular, most Americans (57%) do not feel that they have personally benefited from Biden’s policies. Indeed, many voters (45%) feel that they have been personally harmed by the Biden administration. Just 37% of Americans say that the Biden administration has done anything to help them personally.

Partisanship and media consumption both affect Americans’ perceptions of the impacts of the Biden administration’s policy initiatives. Frequent MSNBC viewers (77%) are most likely to say that they have been helped by the Biden administration. Frequent Fox News viewers (87%) are most likely to say that they have been harmed by the Biden administration.

There is a significant partisan division over whether people feel that the Biden administration has done anything to benefit them: 69% of Democrats feel that they have personally benefited from the Biden administration, compared to 30% of Independents and 5% of Republicans. But even 21% of Democrats say that the Biden administration has not done anything to help them. Fully two in three white voters (65%) do not feel that the Biden administration has done anything for them.

Why is Biden’s Approval Rating Declining?

Nearly half (47%) of Americans say that their opinion of President Biden has gotten worse since he took office in January. Among those are many core or potential Biden supporters, including 12% of Democrats and 51% of Independents. Most Democrats (52%) say that their opinion of Biden is unchanged since January, although 35% have an improved opinion of Biden.

President Biden has not been successful at improving his standing among non-Democrats. Just 13% of Independents and 2% of Republicans have a better opinion of Biden now than when he took office.

Biden has also struggled to win over young voters. Only 9% of voters aged 18-34 say that their opinion of Biden has gotten better since he took office. In contrast, 27% of voters aged 65 or older have an improved opinion of President Biden this year.

Some observers believe that Biden’s declining approval rating is attributable to his withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s rapid takeover of the country. However, the change in Biden’s approval rating has been gradual, not sudden. Even now, 52% of Americans approve of withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, versus only 35% who disapprove, a finding that is consistent across many other public opinion polls.

It is also not that voters feel indifferent to the Biden administration’s actions, or perceive them as unimportant. The survey contained an option for voters to indicate that each policy initiative was “not something I care about,” but few selected this choice. Nearly all respondents expressed either approval or disapproval on every item.

None of Biden’s flagship policies appear to have overwhelming disapproval, but most Americans do not feel that the efforts of the Biden administration have benefited them personally. It is possible that Biden is not doing enough or is not addressing Americans’ most important problems. It is also possible that in a time of ongoing crises, President Biden’s job approval rating would be even lower if not for the relative popularity of his policy initiatives. As it stands, President Biden is losing popular support, and to the extent that voters approve of his policy positions, it has not been enough to stop or reverse that trend.

Civiqs surveyed 1,271 registered voters in the United States from August 28-31, 2021. The survey was conducted online, among selected members of the Civiqs research panel. Sampled individuals were emailed by Civiqs and responded using a personalized link to the survey at civiqs.com. The survey results are weighted by age, race, gender, education, party identification, and region to be representative of the population of registered voters in the United States. The general design effect due to weighting is 1.04. The survey has a margin of error of ±2.8% at the 95% confidence level, accounting for the design effect.